Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
